Iran’s Ambiguous Gambit: Navigating the Crossroads of India and Pakistan

The geopolitical landscape of the Indian Ocean has been roiled by a series of recent incidents involving Iran, India, and Pakistan. While Iran and Pakistan have historically enjoyed close and brotherly ties, New Delhi has also cultivated strategic relations with Tehran, particularly through the development of the Chabahar Port. This complex web of alliances and allegiances was thrown into disarray by two recent attacks attributed to Iran: one against a Pakistan on the night of 17 – 18 January 24 and another on the MV Chem Pluto oil tanker on 23 December 23, a mere 200 nautical miles off the Indian coast.

The attack on the Indian vessel sent shockwaves through New Delhi. India, a major global importer of oil, relies heavily on maritime trade for its economic well-being. The potential disruption of shipping routes, particularly in the Red Sea, could jeopardize about 30 billion dollars in exports. Further complicating matters, the US reportedly attributed the attack to Iran, adding a layer of tension to India’s already delicate balancing act between its partners and Washington.

Adding to the intrigue, the Pakistani attack came just 25 days after the Indian tanker incident. This seemingly unprovoked act fueled speculation about its motives. Was it a genuine retaliation for some perceived Pakistani hand by Iran’s rebels? Or was it, as some analysts suggest, a calculated move to appease India after the tanker attack, showcasing a willingness to demonstrate equidistance in a complex geopolitical dance?

The Indian Foreign Minister’s visit to Iran on January 14-15th, following his discussions on maritime security with the US secretary of state, further adds to the ambiguity. Did he possess concrete evidence from the US linking Iran to the tanker attack, leaving Tehran on the defensive? Or was the visit primarily aimed at bolstering regional connectivity through Chabahar, as publicly stated?

Regardless of the specific motives, the Iranian attacks have significantly impacted India’s strategic calculus. New Delhi must now carefully navigate the choppy waters of the Indian Ocean, balancing its burgeoning partnership with Iran, its longstanding alliance with the US, and its so called desire for regional stability. Ignoring any of these factors could lead to further instability and unpredictability in the region.

The Chabahar Port, once touted as a key symbol of India-Iran cooperation, now stands as a stark reminder of the fragility of such alliances. The question of whether Iran’s recent actions will ultimately strengthen or weaken the project remains unanswered. Only time will tell if India can successfully maneuver through this intricate geopolitical maze, ensuring its economic security while maintaining a semblance of pseudo regional peace.

Syed Nayyar Uddin Ahmad
+92 321 9402157
Lahore.